Real estate investors, take note!
 

There seems to be a growing amount of interest on this board about investing in real estate - which is always the case as real estate prices reach the "skyscraper level" in the market cycle - so I thought I would share an insightful (and true) statement made by Dr. Mark Zandi, Chief Economist at Economy.com.

"The day of reckoning will come," says Dr. Zandi. "The longer the housing boom lasts, the deeper the eventual downturn."

Now, for those of you who don't trust economists, a careful study of history shows that big market moves to the upside are usually followed by big market moves to the downside.

Call it Sir Issac Newton's law of "action" and "reaction" or whatever you want, but no market goes in one direction forever and ever and ever ... either up or down.

Rubber bands only get stretched so far.

Micheal Ross tell me that housing prices have gone out of site in Australia, just like they have in California where I live.

Whether you like it or not, many of the real estate markets in the world are in the stratospheric zones of very high risk.

Remember, the first rule of money is to know when to protect it.

Robert Campbell


Timing the Real Estate Market

Here's an example from a conversation I had today...
 

Bought the house in 1994 for $200,000. Had it valued the other week... $690,000!

House up the road sold for $600,000 and the owners tore it down to build another house on the land.

Overheard woman talking to her mom about a super-upmarket one bed unit for only $390,000!

Young guy bought a place two years ago for $180,000 and it is now valued at $400,000 and he can't afford the taxes. HA!

Crazy.

Michael Ross


No craziness here

Sounds like dotcom conversations we used to have
 

Hi,

Remember how we used to say "Hear about that 17 year old kid that started [whatever].com, and now two months later he's a billionaire? Crazy!"

Now all the dotcoms exploded like the Hindenberg. I for one miss the heady dotcom days.

Soon the RE market is going to explode like the Hindenberg, after which a lot of people will miss the good ol' RE boom days.

Just my educated guess ...

- Boyd

Something else that's crazy
 

Hi,

Something else that's crazy is the way some Americans live in 4000 square foot homes (bought at the top of the market and big enough to house the average third world village), drive leased luxury cars, sport their Polo shirts and Rolex watches---and are always on the brink of financial disaster even before they lose their jobs.

Man, when the effluent hits the oscillator some of these people are going to become fearsome predators as they seek to defend their egos and their families. I'd be afraid to encounter them in a dark alley.

Just my idiotic opinion as always.

- Boyd

Your idiotic opinion is always welcome...
 

Boyd:

Ben Suarez call it "ornamental magnifiers." Agree with him, I do.

What's really interesting is that even Barnum mentions this behavior in The Art of Money Getting which you greatfully linked to the other day. Of course, in this day we might not think a fake camel hair shawl will impress anyone, but its equivalent might.

If you (as in anyone) is happy to drive an old car and live in an old house or mobile home and live an uncluttered life, no one sees you coming. They leave you alone. You get on with your life making money. Let them buy the depreciating do dads. While you get rich.

HA! One guy I was discussing a business venture with said, "You'll recognise me cause I'll be wearing my Calvin Klein shirt."

OH what a wanker. (Turns out his shirt was an imitation made in Bali shirt - and he was also wearing a fake made in Bali rolex, and hocked up to his eye balls with new car leases and living in an apartment he couldn't afford.) HA!

Know a guy worth about $15mil. Drives an old battered F150, gets around in old shorts and a T, does his own garden work and lives in a non-descript house.

Difference is one guy doesn't care about what you think of him. He just goes about his business. The other guys spends all his money to look the part of something he is not - and that's a game you can never win.

Michael Ross

P.S. I don't think your comments are idiotic.

You made my week
 

Hi,

I just wrote and deleted a few paragraphs which boil down to "thank you very much" (and I sincerely mean it).

Best,

- Boyd

Re: Your idiotic opinion is always welcome...
 

I agree with you, in regard to living beneath/below your means. However, the following is ridiculous:

> Know a guy worth about $15mil. Drives an old
> battered F150, gets around in old shorts and
> a T, does his own garden work and lives in a
> non-descript house.

I know a lot of people like this, too. But it begs the question: If you're just going to schluff around like that, then why bother hassling with getting "rich" in the first place?

I also know a lot of very wealthy people who also have the finest cars, houses, clothes and toys. Which would rather be?

For what it's worth ...
 

Hi,

For what it's worth, if my wife and I ever get independently wealthy we'll keep living like we do now (with the exceptions that we'll upgrade our medical care and outsource more--but not all, by any means--of the grunt work).

Best,

- Boyd

Re: For what it's worth ...
 

You don't need to be independently wealthy to do that. You just need to focus on making an additional $20K a year.

Good point! [DNO]
 

dno
> You don't need to be independently wealthy
> to do that. You just need to focus on making
> an additional $20K a year.

Re: Wealthy?
 

Check out a book titled, "The Millionaire Next Door". It covers many cases of people who made good on investments, business, and invention, inheritance, or something.

They were content with their home and lifestyle, so why make major changes.

Many of those who are worth millions didn't necessarily kill themselves by work, they made a plan and stuck with it.

You should meet Dick Kaeser, Chairman of Kaeser and Blair. I've been selling for them as an independent agent/dealer for over ten years now.

It cost him a big chunk of change to give the company to his children in advance of the inheritance/estate taxes.

He still goes to work everyday, working at the company that his dad was co-founder of. For the past seven years he was still driving an old second-hand Cadillac he got when he bought his wife a new one. The trade-in value was so low, he kept it for himself.

This past winter he finally got rid of the 20+ year old car and got a pickup that will get him to and from work on the sometimes icy roads around Cincinnati.

He's lived in the same house for years, and saw no reason to change as his fortunes improved. Had no need for all the "trappings" of wealth.

During his time as Chairman, he has seen the company sales increase from less than $6 Million annually to over $61 Million for the past sales year.

He doesn't need to work, but still goes in 7 days per week, and usually arrives before anyone else and turns the lights out after he leaves.

Meet him at the company convention and he'll have time to talk to you and everyone else who wants to visit.

Some people work from necessity. Others work by choice.

I consider myself fortunate to have Dick as a friend and business partner.

Dennis Bevers

Re: Wealthy?
 

> They were content with their home and
> lifestyle, so why make major changes.

I've read it. But it still doesn't answer the question: If you're going to live like a pauper, why bother chasing wealth in the first place?

Most of the people profiled in the book have something fundamentally flawed about them. First, a million bucks isn't what a million bucks was in the 50's. The book really should have focused on those who are worth 100+ million.

Secondly, many of the those profiled were tradesmen, who built up their business. They continue working (I speculate) not because they love it, but because they lack the creative thinking to figure out what else to do. My parents fit into this category. It's amazing when you meet people who have the financial ability to do whatever they want, but still continue working. It's not (for most) because they love working. It's because they are work-a-holics and the thought of NOT WORKING creates internal conflict about having to decide on what to do next. "I'll work till I die, even though I don't need to. That way, I won't have to make any decisions."

But I digress.

The main question I wanted to raise still hasn't been adequately answered: If you're going to live like a peasant once you're financially wealthy, then why struggle to become financially wealthy in the first place?

That's your POV
 

> I agree with you, in regard to living
> beneath/below your means. However, the
> following is ridiculous:

Know a guy worth about $15mil. Drives an old
battered F150, gets around in old shorts and
a T, does his own garden work and lives in a
non-descript house.

> I know a lot of people like this, too. But
> it begs the question: If you're just going
> to schluff around like that, then why bother
> hassling with getting "rich" in
> the first place?

> I also know a lot of very wealthy people who
> also have the finest cars, houses, clothes
> and toys. Which would rather be?

If you knew the guy you would not think it was ridiculous at all. In fact, you would think it odd if he did buy the new car and show his wealth.

So why bother getting rich just to schluff around? So you at least have a choice.

From your Point of View it doesn't make sense. From his Point of View, the new car, furniture, etc., doesn't make sense.

To each their own. You wouldn't do it. He does.

Warren Buffett drives second hand cars - and the man is a billionaire. His reason makes perfect sense to him, and me...

If I took the amount spent on the new car and invested it, what would it be worth in X years? THAT is what I am really paying for the new car.

Let someone else wear the massive depreciation from new to second hand.

I even apply similar logic to my car registration... why pay one year for $600, when for $310 I get to use $290 I wouldn't otherwise have had, to make more money. And I should be able to turn it into more than $290 in six months.

Next time your electricity bill comes in, call them and inform them you will pay half by the due date and the other half one month later - give a reason if you feel it will help. They will agree and you get to use your money to make more money for an additional six weeks. Better in your hands than theirs, right?

Of course, this only works if you actually do invest the money in some enterprise which makes money - even if it is just ads for your business. Buying a do-dad defeats the purpose.

We each have different points of view. Some like to show off their wealth. Some like to look wealthy even if they aren't. Some prefer to lead a simple life secure in the knowledge they are wealthy.

Other than walking further between rooms, what does having a large house give?

The answer is an individual one.

Why do people buy a new Holden or Ford when for the same money - or even less - they can get a second hand BMW or Merc?

Again, an individual reason.

Millionaire Next Door was mentioned. Not sure if it was that one or the follow up - Millionaire Mind - that mentioned the fireman. Earns $30k a year as a fireman, makes $300k a year from his investments. Keeps being a fireman because he enjoys it.

Many people could not understand that. Many would quit their job. But many people don't like their job. He does. Different POV.

Michael Ross


What's it take

Re: Real estate investors, take note!
 

Just joined this board, Great discussion on Real Estate. I am a Futures trader, but have a great explanation of how bubbles form and their stages of growth and retreat at www.futurestradingsecrets.com/bubble.html. Feel free to copy and forward. It is why I have liquidated all my real estate. Liquidated stocks in Spring of 2000 and shorted market based on this principal.

Just wait until interest rates take an up tick. Fed is already crashing the dollar and the interest rate uptick (remember 1976 at 18%?) was needed to bring in foreign investment.

Bill McCready




Real Estate Bubble

What's the best way to daytrade?
 

Hi,

What's the best entity to daytrade? I need something that lets you get extremely low slippage without having to have a direct phone line to someone in the pit.

I'm well versed in chart-reading, and believe I've developed an extremely good system for picking entries and exits by watching the barchart.

TIA,

- Boyd

Re: What's the best way to daytrade?
 

Boyd
I have been trading the eMini Futures contract online using Jtrader platform. I get fills in 1-3 seconds, using market orders I may lose only 1/4 point in and out. You can check my record at www.futurestradingsecrets.com/dailycharts/record.html

I have the ability to call the pit in case of problems, but have not made a call in over two years, since the platforms are so solid these days.

I have been trading for about 7 years, after 15 years as a Venture Capitalist. My whole story in on the site. I developed my own system as well. My tag line to my old VC buddies, is I used to be buried in deals for 7 years and now I am in a deal for 7 minutes.

Feel free to give me a call anytime.

William F. (Bill) McCready
858-457-3434

Re: What's the best way to daytrade?
 

Hi,

Thanks for the excellent response. I used to be one of Joe Ross's assistants and worked with him on his trading order placement course. If you called Joe's Bahamas office in 1994 I was probably the guy who answered the phone.

While I was daytrading I placed over 1500 real money S&P futures daytrades. I got out of daytrading before you could get fills via computer; I hate the phone ordering process with its necessity for tape recording, time stamping and all that to cover your hiney.

I'd love to daytrade with market orders and just get in and out on a visual or chart instinct basis.

I didn't see Joe's books or Linda B. Raschke's books in your list of those that benefitted you, though I bet you've read them.

Thanks again for the answer.

Best,

- Boyd

> Boyd
> I have been trading the eMini Futures
> contract online using Jtrader platform. I
> get fills in 1-3 seconds, using market
> orders I may lose only 1/4 point in and out.
> You can check my record at
> www.futurestradingsecrets.com/dailycharts/record.html
> I have the ability to call the pit in case
> of problems, but have not made a call in
> over two years, since the platforms are so
> solid these days.

> I have been trading for about 7 years, after
> 15 years as a Venture Capitalist. My whole
> story in on the site. I developed my own
> system as well. My tag line to my old VC
> buddies, is I used to be buried in deals for
> 7 years and now I am in a deal for 7
> minutes.

> Feel free to give me a call anytime.

> William F. (Bill) McCready
> 858-457-3434

Boyd, you used to work for Joe Ross?
 

Hi Boyd,

I attended Joe's two-day futures trading workshop in Austin, Texas in 1993. $3,000 sound familiar?

I have all Joe's books and I find his approach more detailed, more logical, and more solidly based than anything else I have ever studied or read.

In fact, it was Joe Ross that gave me the basic ideas to write my book Timing the Real Estate Market. His statement that "markets are markets" put me in the mindset to apply the same principles he taught for trading the futures market to timing the real estate market. I will never forget those words. They are so true when it comes to making intelligent buying and selling decisions.

Were you working for Joe Ross in 1993-94? How is his health?

Small world, isn't it.

Robert Campbell

Seriously,


How to predict upcoming changes in the real estate market

I was at every 1993 seminar
 

Hi,

> I attended Joe's two-day futures trading
> workshop in Austin, Texas in 1993. $3,000
> sound familiar?

Sure does. What happened with me was I bought the course by Mr. Ken, the dude in the cowboy hat, in late 1991 and started papertrading. By mid 1992 I had convinced myself that his methods were simplistic and not rigorous and started looking for other courses. I bought Joe Ross's books for the simple reason that they were the most expensive--I assumed that the price was justified by quality (which it turned out to be). [As a side note, of course, the mindset I just illustrated is a good argument for pricing one's products higher than the norm.] I happened to notice in one of the books that Joe's address was given as Leander, Texas, which, like the town I live in, Pflugerville, is practically a suburb of Austin. I said, "Hey, this guy lives about ten miles from me!" I somehow got up the nerve to phone him, Joe's Godfather-like voice answered the phone, and during a conversation I declined an invitation to come out to his house but did request that he send me info on his seminar. In late 1992 I showed up at the Howard Johnson's where Joe put on his seminars, shyly took a seat and later in the day paid Bernie the $3,000. By March 1993 I was working for Joe, part-time, on an unpaid basis (my pay was in the knowledge I could soak up about trading and about how Joe ran his mailorder bookselling business); my duties included helping Bernie and Mrs. Ross to set up and run the behind-the-scenes part of Joe's seminars. At your seminar if you remember a bearded, unassuming guy with slightly long hair who stayed in the back of the room and who kept the refreshment table stocked and spotless, that, sir, was I. :-)

> I have all Joe's books and I find his
> approach more detailed, more logical, and
> more solidly based than anything else I have
> ever studied or read.

I totally agree.

> In fact, it was Joe Ross that gave me the
> basic ideas to write my book Timing the Real
> Estate Market. His statement that
> "markets are markets" put me in
> the mindset to apply the same principles he
> taught for trading the futures market to
> timing the real estate market. I will never
> forget those words. They are so true when it
> comes to making intelligent buying and
> selling decisions.

Indeed, a chart is a chart is a chart. As you know, if you plot any non-random event on a barchart, you can use chart-reading techniques to predict whether the chart is likely to rise or fall, whether it's the population density of monarch butterflies or the birthrate of Mongolian Buddhists.

> How is his health?

He called me about two years ago asking for a referral to a good webmaster, but I don't have any data more recent than that. I haven't had much contact with him since 1996.

I still leaf through his books every once in a while--the last time was just a few days ago. I love looking at barcharts!!

Best,

- Boyd

Re: I was at every 1993 seminar
 

Boyd,

You say:

"Indeed, a chart is a chart is a chart. As you know, if you plot any non-random event on a barchart, you can use chart-reading techniques to predict whether the chart is likely to rise or fall, whether it's the population density of monarch butterflies or the birthrate of Mongolian Buddhists."

Do you know where I can get "proof" that shows this statement is actually true. Like you, it's not that I question it. But I would like to show the brilliance (and accuracy) of this statement in the revisions to my book Timing the Real Estate Market.

Can you give me some guidance? I would be grateful.

Robert Campbell
www.RealEstateTiming.com

That is a really good question
 

Hi,

Upon consideration of your question, I realize that what I've done is papertraded charts of phenomenon other than price movement, whenever I've chanced upon one, and though my opinion is that papertrading worked well on these charts it's also true that papertrading works a lot better on any chart than real trading does.

I have to run out of the house right now, but I'll try to find and post a chart of something like Mongolian Buddhist birthrates, and then analyze it using tech analysis. Or if you could post a chart for the group to look at, I'll illustrate how I would have "traded" it realtime.

My opinion about "a chart is a chart is a chart" still stands, but I don't know how to prove it.

Best,

- Boyd