OMG, guess who I ran into today at the Supermarket...it was none other than...

[Ankesh]

Thanks Gordon.

My view is a bit different.

My opinion: economy is not about the money at all. Instead, economy is all about Confidence.

If people are over-confident about the future, they will spend money they don't have. Creating a bubble. And the bubble will burst sometime. Because every bubble bursts.

On the other hand, if people are not so confident about the future, they will save more than consume (eg: Japan). And the economy will suffer as people don't exchange goods and services with one another. And as the economy suffers, people's confidence drops furthers - and thus it creates a downward trending spiral loop.

So the trick has always been: make sure the people remain confident about the future. But that they don't become over-confident.

Doesn't matter how things are screwed up right now, or how much debt a country has. If the leaders can imbibe confidence in the people - while making sure there are checks and balances in place that prevent bubble creations, the economy won't suffer.

Its my personal opinion that Obama can maintain that fine balance. But I may turn out to be wrong.

(Personally - I like Ron Paul's ideas the most. But he can't game public confidence like Obama can.)

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From the other side of the world, things look very rosy even though we are seeing record inflations. Indian population is very young. And youth brings its own exuberance and confidence. As the population matures over the next 40-50 years, I see India becoming richer and richer. Mainly because Indian leaders are very conservative and do a very good job of making sure we don't see bubbles.

(Eg: India didn't see its banks collapsing from the sub-prime crisis. http://www.nytimes.com/2008/12/20/bu...cera.html?_r=1 )
(Note: the above article asks for a NYTimes password to read further. You can skip that by searching for "How India Avoided a Crisis" in Google and then clicking on the NYTimes link. People visiting NYTimes from Google don't require a password...)

It is a good time to invest in India and China and other countries with young populations.

[GordonJ]

Originally Posted by Ankesh

Thanks Gordon.

My view is a bit different.

My opinion: economy is not about the money at all. Instead, economy is all about Confidence.

the trick has always been: make sure the people remain confident about the future. But that they don't become over-confident.

Doesn't matter how things are screwed up right now, or how much debt a country has. If the leaders can imbibe confidence in the people - while making sure there are checks and balances in place that prevent bubble creations, the economy won't suffer.

things look very rosy even though we are seeing record inflations. Indian population is very young. And youth brings its own exuberance and confidence. As the population matures over the next 40-50 years, I see India becoming richer and richer. Mainly because Indian leaders are very conservative and do a very good job of making sure we don't see bubbles.

(Eg: India didn't see its banks collapsing from the sub-prime crisis. http://www.nytimes.com/2008/12/20/bu...cera.html?_r=1 )

It is a good time to invest in India and China and other countries with young populations.

Ankesh,

You always bring a rational and balanced view to the table. Let me counter that with my own "crazy" ideas...the Mr. Gloom and Doom vision...

IF the economy is all about confidence, where do the people look to? Where is the leadership? You apparently have good leaders in India and you point to Japan as being responsible. A couple of issues.

India has one HUGE problem (named Pakistan) which has to be the back drop for much decision making...and it will become a thin balance beam for your leaders to walk. I like the youthful exuberance, but the thing about that which "scares" me, like the new wealth being created in China...is that, all too often, youth likes shiny/sparkly.

Such as cars. And it has been predicted that the China/India market for new cars will explode as more infrastructure gets finished. More cars = more oil imports.

And it is my opinion, that OIL is the old tune we'll be singing.

30 years ago there was a call for an "Appollo" like effort in energy...but the USA leadership, which is about 99% contributed to by Big Oil (and thus the mostly whisper campaign against BP Oil {who points the finger at __________} for the Gulf of Mexico diaster.

Where will India and China get their oil from? China has "locked" up several supply sources, including S. American sources.

Is there enough oil for all of us?

When I (the MDG part of me) look through my oil dripping glasses, it looks kind of murky for me.

What is the OIL situation in India?

Gordon Alexander

[Ankesh]

People in the computer R&D field were all worried that Moore's law is coming to an end. We won't be able to increase computer's processing power and decrease its prices further.

And then comes: Memristors
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wZAHG3COYYA
Prices of computers etc will keep on falling drastically for a few more decades now. And Moore's law gets a new life.

My point is: when people face constraints, thats the time when they innovate the most.

When pain from lack of oil approaches a dead point, we will find an alternative solution that works cheaper than oil. You can count on it.

----

The biggest barrier to India's progress is not Pakistan or terrorism and warfare. It is corruption.

India is very curropt. And I don't see that changing any time soon. Which means the poorest folks have a very tough time to improve their situation. But if you're well to do already, you'll keep on improving your standard of living. And the richer you are, the faster your standard of living will keep on improving. Creating a huge imbalance.

(Thats why India is a country that has more billionaires than UK and Germany. But it also has the world's biggest slum. The problem with India has always been: even though we have more oil than we require - how do we distribute it to the lowest rungs of the society?)

[GordonJ]

Originally Posted by Ankesh

My point is: when people face constraints, thats the time when they innovate the most.

When pain from lack of oil approaches a dead point, we will find an alternative solution that works cheaper than oil. You can count on it.

----

The biggest barrier to India's progress is not Pakistan or terrorism and warfare. It is corruption.

But if you're well to do already, you'll keep on improving your standard of living. And the richer you are, the faster your standard of living will keep on improving. Creating a huge imbalance.

(Thats why India is a country that has more billionaires than UK and Germany. But it also has the world's biggest slum. The problem with India has always been: even though we have more oil than we require - how do we distribute it to the lowest rungs of the society?)

Ankesh,

I somewhat agree with "reaching the dead point", however, when it comes to OIL, the race is going to be with the clock. Between the time we hit the dead point and the NEW technology may be enough time for some very strange things to occur.

And if the NEW technology is proprietary, will we be trading one source for another, and at what cost?

Corruption comes with power, always has, always will up to the point of the "storming of the gates", be they at the Bastille or the Russian Winter Palace or in the Boston Harbor.

Re: OIL's replacement, you may recall I've been working the last few years on a project, a M0BILE hydro generator, which, along with wind and other alternative power could put a big dent in our dependency of coal and other irreplaceable resources.

AND one of my biggest "concerns" is exactly what you say...the rich getting richer, the poor poorer and in the USA the getting stretched too thin middle class.

Part of OUR corruption is the ability of a BP Oil or any BIG company having their hands in our politicians pockets and their votes.

It won't change, money talks. But here we're seeing more and more; "out with the old, in with the new"...and a resurgance in Nationalism, which doesn't ever play well on the world stage with the exception of the Olympics and professional golf.

Gordon