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I believe we are on the brink of a world recession. The Trump tax stimulus was like a short-term jolt, it stimulated things... for a while. Companies spent their tax savings on buying back their stock - which made the stock prices go higher. But it was a short-term thing... The trade war is going to drive the world into recession. It's true that China is hurting the most (as intended), but everyone will hurt to some degree... I don't believe the trade war issues will be resolved. A recession could be bad for your 401(k) (retirement plan). But also, recessions mean new opportunities. As I mentioned elsewhere, I know one person who's positively gleeful about the prospect of a recession. A recession, to him, means he makes more money than before! So he's not worried at all... When you know how to do it, there's no need to worry either! There are businesses and activities that make MORE money in the bad times, than they do in the good...! Best wishes, Dien
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#2
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Recessions, are for the most part, about economic conditions, and they could have huge impact on many people, they don't often touch the daily mundane of the majority. War and disasters, however, do. War is good for business, at least in USA, where we are so dependent and have made our military complex co-dependent (the largest welfare recipients) on the selling of arms, seen by POTUS gleefully touting the arms sales to the Saudis. No end game for either Iraq or Afghanistan, just two hot spots, and add in Eastern Europe, North Korea and the coming conflict over the Antarctica, well, business should be good for that sector. Insurance, banks, cars, loans won't fare as well. An early tornado season, coupled with flooding, and the wildfire/earthquake/Godzilla attacks, well, we have a different kind of recession. Even the late Petyr Baelish knew chaos was a "ladder of opportunity" and we will see continued chaos, especially in the political realms. Opportunists and savvy investors know how to take advantage of the current flow, and remain, for the most part, unaffected by the winds of change. Down here, in the streets, we may see a different kind of recession, with yellow vests, white hoods, black masks and red blood being spilt. Depends a lot on the TRICKLE down economics, as we saw in aught eight, the people got wet, many underwater, when the Tsunami of greed hit us hard. Not so much blood in the streets as green life savings running into the drains. This time, maybe not so "peaceful". The difference? Politics. We are more divisive, more akin to the lowest form of communication (violence) and more likely to act on our beliefs. I hope to be proven wrong. But I just don't see a cheery future for so many people, HOWEVER, those of us here, the SowPubbers of the world, who prepare for the worst and work toward the best...we all should be OK. Every year brings its own dire warnings coupled with bright hopes for the tomorrows, none of which are promised to any one person. So, let us do what we can with what we have to be helpful to those who can't help themselves and we have to keep sticking our fingers in the leaks, for as long as we can. 2019's glass appears about half ______ (full or empty, you all decide). Gordon |
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